WASHINGTON – Despite the churn in the U.S. capital as the new administration takes over, despite the attempted Muslim ban and despite President Trump's "America first" proclamations, there is a sense among veteran U.S.-based Middle East observers that relations with the Gulf states are stable and might even benefit from the power changes.
The U.S., said veteran U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker, has spent years negotiating transit and basing rights and establishing a stable military presence in the Gulf area.
"I do not expect to see those change under a Trump administration," said Crocker. "They are low-cost to us and they have proven their value to us over and over. They are not objects of domestic criticism in this country or the host country. It's a pretty good architecture."
Owen Daniels, assistant director for the Middle East Peace and Security Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, agreed.
"I would not expect to see as much flux. I think the countries that are in the Gulf are kind of taking a wait and see approach to the Trump Administration," Daniels said. "From a perspective of opportunity, they see it as an opportunity to get closer to the U.S."
Jim Phillips, a senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the conservative Heritage Foundation, is confident relations could improve.
"I think Gulf Cooperation Council members will be much happier with the Trump Administration's policies on security issues than they were with the Obama Administration," Phillips predicted. "The new administration has staked out a harder-line policy on Iran and on fighting terrorism than its predecessor. It is likely to quickly approve arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that were held up by the Obama Administration and is likely to respond more strongly to Iran's missile tests, arming of Houthi rebels in Yemen and naval harassment in the Persian Gulf."
A key to stable relations, Crocker said, is that the new head of the Pentagon is well known to leaders throughout the Middle East. As a Marine general, James Mattis led U.S. Central Command from 2010 to 2013 and has extensive military experience in the region.
"I’m confident the president did not choose him to dismantle this strategic architecture we’ve so carefully put in place," Crocker said of Mattis. "He knows the Gulf up and down -- and more importantly they know him."
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that both Mattis and new Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, former chairman and chief executive officer of ExxonMobil, have many relationships throughout the region.
"Governments in the Middle East really like Jim Mattis, and the governments in the Middle East that have worked with Rex Tillerson really like Rex Tillerson," Alterman said. "The sort of us versus them -- for the most part, the leaders in the Middle East think they are part of the ‘us’. And they certainly have a lot of faith in the cabinet members they know based on long standing relationships."
So how might Trump’s directness mesh with the careful language of diplomacy?
"It’s a great question," said Crocker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan under presidents George H. W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama.
"I was pleased to see that President Trump had an early conversation with Saudi King Salman," Crocker noted. "Saudi Arabia has been the lynchpin for our Middle East presence for many years. You go back to February 1945, President Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud. That put in place the keystone for the whole architecture we’ve built. Frankly if the new president wants to mess with that it would be nothing short of idiotic. This has worked for us, it has worked for our hosts."
Crocker ticked off just some of the U.S. military arrangements around the Gulf.
"A state of the art facility in Kuwait – access to two air bases. Bahrain, homeport to the Fifth Fleet. UAE all kinds of landing rights. Oman where we’ve had a presence for decades. Al Udeid air base in Qatar. And Saudi Arabia the lynchpin," he noted. "These are long-term assets for the U.S. And I have every confidence that will be the case in this administration."
Responding to those who might question the American staying power in the region, Crocker noted the longevity of some of the relationships.
"Bahrain – we’ve been there 70 years. Kuwait, a quarter of a century. Qatar 20 years. Saudi Arabia has had a US military training mission with the Saudi National Guard for at least 40 years," he said.
The attempt by Trump to limit those entering the U.S. from several Muslim countries was seen as hostile in some areas, particularly Iran. No GCC countries were included in the ban and, Alterman said, the reaction wasn’t nearly as vitriolic in other countries.
"I think you could see it as, well, the president tried to put in a Muslim ban and these are Muslim countries, so they must be tearing their hair out," Alterman observed. "That is not what is going on. They see an administration that is focused with a laser beam on defeating Islamic extremism and they see themselves having something to give in that and a lot to get."
Saudi Arabia, however, might be "a little less confident," Alterman noted. "They are still spooked by JASTA -- the Justice Against Victims of Terrorism Act -- and then they are spooked by a sense that an energy-independent U.S. doesn’t need Saudi Arabia the way the U.S. did in the past. So I think the Saudis are a little less bullish. But a lot of other Middle Eastern states are pretty bullish about what this means. Certainly Egypt, the UAE, I think the Kuwaitis see a significant upside."
The Muslim ban is seen as more of a security issue by some countries, Daniels said.
"The UAE for example, basically had a statement that said the U.S. can ban whoever they want coming in. It’s a sovereignty issue," Daniels said. "The UAE said they didn’t see that as a Muslim ban."
Crocker doubted there would be much of a move to re-write agreements between the U.S. and Gulf countries to be more explicit.
"Some of the very best security arrangements for our hosts and ourselves have literally been flying below the radar," Crocker observed. "These are not issues for contention or comment up and down the Gulf. But we should not lose track of its significance.
"It’s a great system, it captures no headlines, and that’s the way we like it."
The U.S. isn’t going anywhere, Crocker said.
"The facts don’t lie. We’ve been in the Gulf for decades, we’re going to stay in the Gulf for decades," he declared. "They very much appreciate what our presence does for their security. We very much appreciate the access we have for world security."
Jen Judson is an award-winning journalist covering land warfare for Defense News. She has also worked for Politico and Inside Defense. She holds a Master of Science degree in journalism from Boston University and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Kenyon College.
