Worried Nordic and Baltic-rim state governments are seeking "early" individual meetings with Vice President-elect Mike Pence to discuss what US security policy may look like under Donald Trump's new administration.
The unexpected outcome of the US presidential election came as a shock to the region's officials. Government leaders favored a Clinton victory that would continue to support US engagement in the defense of the High North and Baltic Sea regions.
The immediate priority for Nordic and Baltic governments at this juncture will be to activate dialogue with the incoming Trump team in a bid to secure clarification on both policy and campaign statements by the president-elect relating to a possible downsizing of the U.S. military role in the High North and the Baltic Sea, and US funding of NATO.
In one statement, Trump described NATO's present mission and structure as "obsolete."
"The important thing is that security policy continues as normal," said Juha Sipilä, Finland's prime minister. Sipilä added that the Finnish and Nordic hope is that the S will continue to play a pivotal role in contributing to security and stability in the region, and the Baltic Sea in particular.
Sweden will seek clarification regarding campaign statements by the president-elect. Trump suggested that an attack by Russia on NATO-aligned Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania might not result in automatic military assistance.
Trump said that a decision to defend the Baltics would be made in the wake of an "assessment" as to whether the three nations had stuck to their commitments concerning financial contributions to NATO.
"This suggests that a new Trump administration might not have a policy where the US would support the Baltic States, if for example there was an attack by Russia against Estonia," said Ebba Busch Thor, the leader of Sweden's Christian Democrats party.
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said his Cabinet was not blind-sided by the election result. The government, he said, had devised strategies to deal with "two potential outcomes."
Sweden, and regional governments, remain anxious over how possible closer relations between a Trump administration and Russia could develop, said Ulf Bjereld, a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
"Just how will Donald Trump manage US relations with Russia? Will the US prioritize a more isolationist American foreign policy, and thereby open the door to increased Russian influence in the Baltic Sea area?" asked Bjereld.
Denmark, together with other countries in the High North and Baltic Sea regions, must now deal with the "great unknown" that is future US foreign security policy under a Trump administration, said Søren Espersen, a foreign affairs spokesman with the conservative Danish party, Dansk Folkeparti.
"I believe Trump will make an approach to Russia, and also demand that Western European nations increase spending on defense to 2 percent of their GDP," said Espersen.
Norway, whose national defense plan is based upon delivery of US military support in sovereignty-related threat situations, is hoping that a Trump administration will not renege on a plan to establish a rotating force of 330 Marines in Norway from January 2017.
The objective, post-election, will be to build a stronger security and defense relationship with the US, said Norway's Foreign Minister Børge Brende, who described Washington as Norway's "closest ally".
"We need to retain our close security cooperation. Collective security is important," said Brende.
