HONOLULU — As the defense ministers from the ASEAN nations gather for a Friday meeting in Hawaii, all eyes are on the interaction between US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Philippine Minister of Defense Delfin Lorenzana.
While other issues will be on the table, including concerns over Chinese actions in the South China Sea and worries that Islamic State militants might return to Southeast Asia from Syria, the military relationship between the US and the Philippines will be front and center following comments from Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
In his first few months in office, Duterte has issued a string of insults to US President Barack Obama and has questioned the 60-odd-year-old military alliance between the two nations.
Earlier this month, Duterte announced he was cancelling all future military exercises with the US. But the Pentagon still plans to invest in building up a quintet of military facilities in the Philippines and does not appear concerned about a cut off for military exercises.
A spokesman for the US Marine Corps told sister publication Marine Corps Times that the service is "still expected" to take part in PHIBLEX, an annual training exercise with the Philippine military.
Speaking aboard the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson in San Diego on Thursday, Carter called the relationship between the two nations "ironclad." Carter also highlighted the work the Philippines is doing with regional partners on counter-piracy operations as an example of Pacific nations "coming together on their own by establishing bilateral and trilateral mechanism."
"The US has strong security interests in the Philippines regardless of who’s president," one senior Pentagon official said. "We have had a long, enduring alliance with the Philippines that has lasted for 60 years. It has had its ups and downs and it's survived, and it will continue to survive given what we think are strong US- Philippine common security interests."
During the minister’s meeting, US officials will meet with Lorenzana and his staff to understand how serious Duterte’s position is.
"We’ve heard different messages from the Philippines. We’re going to seek to clarify what theirs is and we’ll take it from there," the official said. "The secretary’s encounters with Defense Minister Lorenzana will be part of the process of clarification, I’m sure."
"I expect we’ll get through this," the official added. "The US commitment to Philippine security is going to remain ironclad. I think the alliance has a good, solid future ahead of it."
ISIS, Chinese Concerns
While US-Philippine relations may draw the most attention, it is not part of the official schedule of events.
Phuong Nguyen, a regional expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said not to expect any surprises at the two-day event.
"We expect it to be an affirmation of the importance of security cooperation between the US and ASEAN, since it will be the first time the ministers convene in Hawaii after the two sides established a strategic partnership last November," she said.
Indeed, the development of a security assistance network is the overarching theme for the meeting, as Carter previewed in his comments Thursday.
"Regional nations are developing a networked, multilateral regional security architecture — from one end of the region to the other," Carter said. Of the ASEAN meeting, "we’re going to reflect on our shared interests and principles and identify new ways to partner together to further realize them."
As part of that focus, the Pentagon hopes to see an increased presence from the US Coast Guard in the region. Rear. Adm. Vincent Atkins, the Coast Guard's 14th District commander, will be joining the meetings Friday to discuss such opportunities.
Two regional challenges will be of particular focus for the ministers: the issue of China’s development in the South China Sea and a looming threat from ISIS in the region.
Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, in particular, are focused on the potential that ISIS fighters, squeezed by opposition forces in Iraq and Syria, will return home to the region.
The senior defense official estimated that less than 1,000 ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq are of Southeast Asian origin, and said the department believes a number of militants in the "low hundreds" have already returned home.
"Local governments certainly are very concerned about the possibility of a rise in ISIL-related violence. It is very high on their agenda when they speak to us," the official said, using an alternative acronym for the Islamic State group. The official added that the US is looking for ways to increase counterterrorism training with those three nations, as well as Singapore.
As for China, the official said the US believes the July decision by a UN tribunal that sided with the Philippines in saying China does not have a territorial claim to the South China Sea.
The official also said that the US will continue to fly and operate near territory claimed by China, and will perform more freedom of navigation operations in the future.
"We’re certainly going to continue to do" those operations, the official said. "We’re going to continue, as the secretary says, flying and operating [in] the region whenever we can and wherever we can."
Jeff Schogol of Marine Corps Times contributed to this report
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Aaron Mehta was deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent for Defense News, covering policy, strategy and acquisition at the highest levels of the Defense Department and its international partners.
