NEW DELHI - Following support from US President Barack Obama earlier this month, India's entry into the 34-nation Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is now all but certain, and officials here are drawing up plans to make use of the new status.
India joining the group will pave the way for the purchase of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV), like the Predator from the United States, according to military officials. In addition, membership would facilitate the export of the Indo-Russian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam in a bid to check China, and also enable India to obtain technologies from overseas to complete development of its homemade UCAV.
"India's entry into MTCR is a mere formality because no participating country has made any formal objections," says Bharat Karnad, research professor at New Delhi based Centre for Policy Research.
At the same time, India's chances of entering into the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which oversees global civil nuclear trade, remain uncertain, analysts say.
An official of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), who requested not to be named, said, "As a policy matter, MEA does not discuss both MTCR and NSG negotiations with the media."
When asked why India has been so aggressively pushing its entry into the MTCR, Karnad said: "India's missile technologies are as advanced as any in the world. But India's entry into MTCR will give it a veto over the entry of other aspiring states, such as China. It becomes a leverage against China, which can be wielded in the same way as China has used its membership in NSG to prevent India's entry."
The MTCR aims to curb the spread of unmanned delivery systems for nuclear weapons. However, India was able to get technology transfer for the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with a range restricted to less than 300 kilometers despite not being a member of the regime.
Karnad says, "India entry into MTCR means it will be free to sell and transfer its very accurate long-range missiles to even non-MTCR countries without attracting sanctions. That is how Russia's collaboration on the BrahMos missile did not attract sanctions."
"India's entry into MTCR will give it the "legitimacy" to export the BrahMos cruise missiles to countries like Vietnam, which has "concerns with China," independent defense analyst Nitin Mehta said.
However, Rajiv Nayan, a senior research associate at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses says New Delhi joining the group "has nothing to do with procurement. BrahMos missiles and drone business are unnecessarily being highlighted by the Indian media. The restriction will be for carrying weapons of mass destruction (WMD), especially through ballistic missiles. Otherwise, for other military purposes, the MTCR merely regulates, does not ban."
On weapons procurement, an Indian Air Force (IAF) official said: "After getting entry into MTCR, India will buy Predator XP and Avenger hunter-killer drones."
The Indian Navy has already expressed interest in buying Predator drones for surveillance, manufactured by U.S. firm General Atomics. "Even the weaponized Predator will be on the wish list of India," the IAF official said.
India's entry into MTCR will also enable it to get technology from overseas for its homemade Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV), Mehta, the analyst, said.
India's UCAV, which is called Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft (AURA), will be used as a combat aerial system and a bomber. The project is however still in the conceptual stage.
While India joining the MTCR appears to be a done deal, entry into the NSG is not certain because of opposition by China, a member country. Beijing is pushing for Pakistan's entry into group.
"By becoming a member of the NSG, India will be on the body that virtually makes rules for global nuclear commerce," Nayan said.
Vivek Raghuvanshi is the India correspondent for Defense News.
