WASHINGTON — On Feb. 12, Russia and Ukraine announced a cease-fire agreement that many in Europe hoped would end the hostilities between the two nations that kicked off almost a year ago when Russian forces invaded Crimea.
Hours later, Defense News sat down to interview Gen. Frank Gorenc, the head of US Air Forces in Europe. Asked about the cease-fire, he was cautiously optimistic.
"I guess my view is this: When the actions match the words, then I'll be happy," he said. "Until then, you know … it is what it is. I hope it works."
By Feb. 25, that cease-fire appeared dead, with US Secretary of State John Kerry accusing Russia of lying about its role in the ongoing conflict and Ukraine forces bracing for further attacks.
It was a disappointing, but not wholly unexpected, result, one that underscores the surprisingly unexpectedly important role being played by US forces in Europe. In the wake of the Ukrainian conflict, the European theater has gained brand new focus and energy from the Pentagon — and is emerging as a potential growth market for US industry.
Perhaps the most obvious sign of Europe's importance for the Pentagon is the decision to base a theater security package of 12 A-10 Warthog planes and about 300 airmen from the 355th Fighter Wing at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona, at Spangdahlem AFB in Germany, a six-month commitment that began last month.
Getting that commitment, even while the A-10 is being used extensively against Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria, is a big sign, Gorenc said.
"You know, when you get a TSP package in the form of an A-10 while the campaign against ISIS is going on, that's a clear statement of how important Europe is in the prioritization — to achieve the aspiration of both [NATO] and our country," Gorenc said.
USAFE is already "making the input" to re-up the theater security package when the six-month time span is over, Gorenc said, although whether that will result in the A-10s will stay staying or other aircraft replacesing them is undecided.still in the air.
It's not just the security package that shows the commitment, however. Both Gorenc and Gen. Philip Breedlove, the head of of US European Command and NATO supreme allied commander, emphasized the number of training operations going on in Europe.
"The readiness and capability is the thing we are working on together, to raise the capability of the NATO alliance," Breedlove said during a Feb. 25 congressional hearing.
The Air Force has mission sets simply unavailable in other countries, such as ISR, heavy airlift and more precision strike, and these are sought in request by NATO allies for training and stand by for reassurance, Breedlove added.
"All of those enabling capabilities that are less abundant in other nations, those are the things that we are most asked to bring, provide, train with, help people understand how to use them," he said.
These training missions include: F-16s participating in deployments to Estonia and Romania this spring; C-130s and F-16s in Poland for aviation detachment rotations; Air National Guard F-15s in exercise Thracian Eagle this spring in Bulgaria; Exercise Saber Strike and Baltic operations in Baltic States and Poland this summer; C-130s participating in training in Bulgaria and Romania this summer; Air National Guard F-16s and Reserve A-10s in training deployments in Bulgaria and Estonia this summer.
Other planned operations, not related to Operation Atlantic Resolve, include two exercises — Purple Windmill 2 and Purple Windmill 3 — in the Netherlands this spring and summer; Exercise Eager Lion in Morocco later this spring; exercise Anatolian Eagle in Turkey; and Arctic Challenge in Norway.
Gorenc acknowledged the high tempo of operations in Europe, but said he was not concerned with burnout in the short term, either from people or equipment.
"We're running pretty hard," Gorenc said. "I think that our people are satisfied with the mission that they're doing. We're getting some good training out of it. They recognize their role as being the forward, ready-now element of the force. So, if it's there, I haven't seen it yet. If we keep on going like this we may have some of that."
Industrial Impact
While NATO may be seeing a re-commitment from the US, particularly the Air Force, the US defense industry is seeing a spike in interest from countries in Eastern Europe.
Samir Mehta, president of Sikorsky military systems, told reporters Feb. 5 that there has been a "renewed sense of urgency" from Eastern Europe for his company's products, particularly its Black Hawk utility helicopter, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began almost a year ago.
"I don't think there's any secret, geopolitically, what's causing that demand," Mehta said. "A lot of these countries have Russian equipment they have traditionally used, and now they want to be able to pivot over to using Western equipment and what the DoD uses. And that means a lot of interest, specifically in the Black Hawk, so we're seeing a huge spike up in interest from those countries."
Last month, the US Department of State cleared Slovakia on a sale of nine UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters. Slovakia wants to replace its 14 Soviet-designed Mil Mi-17 copters with the American-made systems, a sale that Mehta said "would not have been on our radar" before Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory a year ago.
Rod McLean, who leads Lockheed Martin's F-22/F-16 integrated fighter group, said he is seeing interest from nations that operate the F-16 in Europe on how to upgrade their jets.
"The world affairs that are occurring has caused other countries to start to reassess their modernization plans," he said. "I think the interest is there. But having the budget to support the near-term movement for upgrades has been a challenge" for some countries in the region.
McLean highlighted both Romania and Poland as nations that have moved to upgrade their F-16 fleets, and also said Bulgaria is working through its budget as it decides whether renting F-16s from another nation, most likely Greece, makes sense.
Industry got a boost last month when the State Department rolled out new guidelines for weapon sales to NATO, for the first time allowing NATO members to acquire and share American military hardware among other members. of the alliance.
Even among non-NATO countries, world affairs are driving interest in US equipment, said Heidi Grant, US Air Force deputy undersecretary for international affairs.
"There is a huge shift to partner with the US," she told Defense News on Feb. 12. "I don't want to zero in on a specific country, but what I hear from countries around the world is they are frustrated with equipment they've bought from other countries — they buy the equipment and then they don't get the sustainment and the training."
The supply chain issue is a big one for many former Soviet countries that still operate Russian-made equipment, Gorenc said.
"There certainly was concern expressed about that, as you would expect," he said. "If your supplier is the very country that's threatening you, you would have to worry about that."
Both Grant and Gorenc noted that getting allies onto US equipment isn't just good for local industry, but helps drives the interoperability that is particularly key for NATO. At the same time, the hope is to help guide allied nations to fill in gaps, rather than duplicate strengths.
"If I had a wish list, it would be more ISR capability, more airlift or more rapid global mobility, particularly with respect to air-to-air refueling," Gorenc said. "I encourage things that will give us better interoperability among equipment that we have. There's a lot of countries that have air-to-air refueling, but it's drogue refueling. I need booms, you know what I mean?"
Getting allies to reach those decisions, Grant stressed, requires a real strategy that they can see and understand.
"Air forces tend to just want fighter aircraft, which is why we need a strategy to present," she said. "I can't have a conversation with a country to say 'maybe you should get ISR instead of an F-16' when it is their money they are bringing to the table — unless I have some sort of strategy to look at and say, 'if you really care about security in your region and you want to be a valued partner, everything shows that this would be the best contribution to the region.'"
Brian Everstine with Air Force Times contributed to this report
Aaron Mehta was deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent for Defense News, covering policy, strategy and acquisition at the highest levels of the Defense Department and its international partners.
