NEW DELHI — Following India's sudden decision to buy 36 Rafales from France straight off the production line last week, the next steps in New Delhi's plan to eventually outfit its Air Force with 126 of the Dassault jets remain unclear.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on April 10 that 36 jets will be purchased through a government-to-government deal. Since India made Dassault the preferred bidder for the $12 billion program in 2012, the plan had been to purchase 18 jets and build the remaining 108 in India through a license.
Indian Defence Ministry sources said the deal was struck by the Prime Minister's Office and therefore have no details are available. MoD spokesman Sitanshu Kar refused to comment on how the rest of the deal will play out.
Indian Defence Minister ManoharParrikar (cq) tweet on the status of the RFP says,"A car can not run on two paths [simultaneously]," Kar tweeted on Monday, attributing the comment to Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar. However, no official would say whether it means the plan to buy 126 jets will be canceled or altered.
MoD sources say they learned of the direct purchase of the 36 Rafales when Modi made the announcement at the April 10 press conference.
"The decision is no doubt of the [Prime Minister's Office] and how much the MoD and other agencies were kept in the loop is not clear, but a number of options may have been considered, of which the final as announced by the prime minister in consultation with the French government at the highest level may have been adopted," said defense analyst Rahul Bhonsle. "Such decisions are required to be cleared formally by the Cabinet Committee on Security, whether this formality was done is not clear."
The Ministry of External Affairs, which reported the joint statement in Paris on April 10, said: "[The] Government of India conveyed to the Government of France that in view of the critical operational necessity for multirole combat aircraft for Indian Air Force, Government of India would like to acquire [36] Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible. The two leaders agreed to conclude an inter-governmental agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway."
French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will probably go to India in the next few weeks to negotiate the deal, a defense official said in Paris.
The French authorities and Dassault are staying silent on the details of the deal, which caught all by surprise, a parliamentary official said.
Dassault and the Defense Ministry were unavailable for comment.
Pending a formal announcement of the cancellation of the ongoing request for proposals (RFP), speculation abounds on what will happen to this big-ticket purchase program, dubbed the "mother of all deals."
"Scrapping of the RFP is up to the government. However, the prime minister's statement is very clear that the 36 aircraft deal is one in parallel to the RFP process — so, it appears that the RFP has not been withdrawn," said Manhoman Bahadur, retired air vice marshal and fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies.
The price of purchase of the fly-away Rafale is a detail that still must be worked out, an MoD official said.
What prompted the sudden announcement will remain a subject of hot debate in the days ahead.
"This is a classic case of a geopolitically driven strategic partnership being leveraged by the two heads of government to add a new energy to India's defense acquisition process and Dassault's imperative for Rafale export that had got logjammed by Dassault-MoD bureaucracies' inability to move forward," said Kapil Kak, retired air vice marshal and defense analyst.
Analysts here say India will order more Rafales over the proposed 36.
"The [Air Force] has done that before — it may be recollected that we had bought only 40 Mirage 2000s," Bahudar said. "Yes, it does open up another supply line, which if restricted to only 40 aircraft, would be costly."
With the future of the $12 billion project unclear and the increased direct purchases of the Rafale, possibilities have emerged on how the Indian Air Force will buy the remaining 90 fighters. There is no clarity on what happens next.
"I do not think the 2007 tender would be scrapped and a fresh RFP issued. The deal for 36 fighters, which India expects to induct in two years, would give both India and France some more time to negotiate the terms for 126 fighters," said Laxman Kumar Behera, research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
Analysts say the Russians could receive increased orders for SU-30MKI aircraft.
"The Russians may also benefit as additional orders for Sukhoi may be in the offing, given that the plan for buying all 126 Rafale may be scaled down to between 60-90," Bhonsle said. "The deficiency will be made up by additional Su-30 MKI."
"India has not forgotten the Russians and the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft will definitely happen," said Ankur Gupta, defense analyst with Ernest & Young.
Pierre Tran in Paris contributed to this report.
Vivek Raghuvanshi is the India correspondent for Defense News.
