WASHINGTON — Summer’s is over and lawmakers are back in Washington amid the widespread belief that Congress will again fail to complete its budget work before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. As a result, a three-month continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through the end of calendar year 2015 at fiscal 2014 levels is widely expected.
The Defense Department, along with most government agencies, has become adept at pushing key items to the later quarters of a fiscal year, mitigating some of the CR chaos. Asked about the potential effect of a three-month CR on the US Navy's acquisition programs, one defense official said it would be "negligible."
But that would not be the case should a year-long CR be enacted, — essentially funding all of 2015 at 2014 levels and imposing a widespread ban on "new start" acquisitions — programs for which there is no significant funding in the earlier year.
As reported by Defense News on Aug. 23, the possibility of a year without a new budget has already been broached on the Hill, even though it’s never happened. A year-long CR would likely turn into a five-quarter affair, since Congress typically can’t finish budget work before an election, leaving it to lame-duck lawmakers to do the dirty work after the November 2016 elections.
US Navy officials, along with other Pentagon offices, already are considering what the impact would be of a full-year CR. According to the defense official, the service could lose up to $4.6 billion from its operations and maintenance accounts, resulting in canceled or extended deployments, reduced flying hours and limitations on training.
The impact on shipbuilding and procurement could be significant. One Navy estimate forecast a loss of between $3 billion and $6.6 billion. Research and development funding would also face the potential loss of nearly $2 billion.
Programs at risk include the T-AO(X) fleet oiler, which is to begin procurement in 2016; the first year of advance procurement for the aircraft carrier Enterprise (CVN 80); the beginning of the carrier George Washington’s refueling and complex overhaul (RCOH) — a major, four-year overhaul done only once during a carrier’s 50-year lifespan; and initial production of the MQ-4 broad-area maritime and surveillance unmanned aircraft.
Several programs are scheduled for increases or shifts to new variants, all at risk, including the first Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer with the new Air Missile Defense Radar (AMDR); long-lead funding for the LHA 8 assault ship; and increased P-8A Poseidon aircraft production from nine9 to 16 units.
The loss of new R&D funding would impact the SSBN(X) Ohio-class replacement submarine; work on the Virginia payload module to install on future attack submarines; the LCS frigate development effort; the Joint Strike Fighter; the AMDR; work on E-2D and MV-22A aircraft; and the next-generation jammer.
Avenues exist that could provide relief for some of these programs could see some relief in the form of CR anomalies — requests for adjustments on specific programs. For example, when the 2013 defense bills were held up by CRs, delaying the Navy’s authority to award contracts to begin the carrier Abraham Lincoln’s RCOH, an anomaly exemption was requested and granted, allowing the work to proceed. Navy planners subsequently adjusted other overhauls to generally avoid the first quarter of a fiscal year.
Email: ccavas@defensenews.com
Twitter: @CavasShips
