LONDON — With publication of Britain’s strategic defense and security review (SDSR) little more than two months away, potential contenders for a likely requirement to plug a gap in maritime patrol the gap left by the brutal axing of Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft five years ago were making their case at last week’s DSEI show for why the government should look beyond the Royal Air Force’s apparent preferred choice of buying the Boeing P-8 aircraft without having a competition.
Five years ago, the axing of Abandoning BAE’s Nimrod MRA4 program before it was completed turned out to be the Conservative government's most controversial decision of a 2010 SDSR fashioned by financial problems rather than strategy.
Now, embarrassed by having to call in allied aircraft to hunt suspected Russian nuclear submarines lurking in the waters near a Scottish ballistic missile submarine base and for other incidents, the government has committed to a decision in the 2015 review whether to plug that capability gap with a new platform.
Given the recent support for refreshing Britain’s ISTAR capabilities from Prime Minister David Cameron and other senior political and military figures, few doubt the government will opt for re-establishing a maritime patrol force, but few though know at this stage how it will be done, when and at what cost.
DSEI was alive with companies seeking to influence government deliberations over whether to open a competition to acquire capability rather than go for the quick, off-the-shelf answer and purchase a P-8 jet already ordered by the US Navy, India and Australia.
The RAF's preferred option is the P-8, according to Royal United Services Institute think tankers John Louth and Peter Roberts in a report on the maritime patrol capability published Sept. 11.
"One or two noises coming from senior RAF officers suggest that the P-8 is in pole position," said the analysts.
One executive said, "the big fear among most of Boeing's rivals is that whatever the question is the customer's answer is the P-8."
The aircraft doesn't come cheap, though, and despite the MoD securing a better than expected budget settlement up to 2020, it's not clear whether the British military could afford to purchase the nine or more aircraft needed to support its nuclear submarine fleet and other uses.
Had Philip Hammond remained defense secretary for a short while longer, the issue would likely have been resolved in mid-2014 with a deal to buy the P-8.
An official familiar with the discussions said the MoD was a whisker away from ordering the Boeing 737-based aircraft when Hammond was promoted to foreign secretary just ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow of 2014.
His replacement, Michael Fallon, reviewed the details of the deal and dropped the idea, said the official. Now it's not a straightforward decision to replace the Nimrod with another maritime patrol aircraft.
"The big change is that it is called a multimission aircraft rather than a maritime patrol aircraft and the very good reason for that is they want to do lots of things instead of just fly over the sea," said Gary Soul, the head of Air ISTAR strategy and business at Airbus Defence and Space.
Sir Brian Burridge, the head of Finmeccancia's operations in the UK, believes the British definition of multimission is confined largely to the maritime domain. "Their imagination is slightly constrained," he told reporters at a DSEI briefing.
Moving the goal posts to a possible multimission requirement, though, has helped open the door to a wider number of potential bidders.
Finmeccanica with the C-27J and Lockheed Martin, the latter proposing the use of RAF-owned C-130Js, added their names to an already bulging list of potential competitorsfor a maritime or multimission ircraft if the government opens the bidding to all comers.
Already on the list of expected contenders is Airbus with the C295, Japanese contractor Kawasaki with the jet powered P1, L-3 offering a modified Bombardier Q400, Saab with the Saab 2000 Swordfish and Northrop Grumman with its Triton remotely piloted air vehicle. are all readying for a possible competition.
Raytheon also pitched in, briefing reporters last week on a road map to grow the maritime capabilities of the five R1 Sentinel battlefield surveillance machines operated by the RAF into the maritime space.
The company is also talking to the RAF about a possible extension, from 2018 to 2025, of the out-of-service date of the Challenger business jet-based capability, from 2018 to 2025 said Roland Howells, the head of airborne solutions at Raytheon.
That's a value-for-money move that could bridge a possible gap in overland wide area surveillance capabilities for the British ahead of work to give the P-8 better multimission performance, Raytheon officials reckoned.
Many of Boeing's rivals have been trying to exploit possible P-8 weaknesses on issues like multimission capabilities to help sway the MoD in the direction of a competition.
With defense expected to contribute to do its part in delivering economic prosperity as here expected to be part of the SDSR, Boeing's rivals have also been playing up local content, the maintenance of sovereign capability, and the flexibility of their airframes to be used for roles such as inserting special forces. insertion if palletized mission systems are part of their solution.
Flash Gordon, L-3's director of international mission integration, said one consideration is whether the government should be looking to sustain UK sovereignty by protecting UK skills in key areas.
"Many of the aspects of an MPA/MMA capability are areas where UK industry is strong, and maintaining that strength would sustain our operational advantage and our freedom of action. The high technology products produced by UK companies such as MBDA, Selex and Ultra are crucial to these aspects of our sovereignty," Gordon said.
"The majority of the installation work on an MPA/MMA could be undertaken in the UK. Such an approach would not only sustain skills and create jobs but also provide export opportunities for Britain," he said.
Exports were a key theme of Fallon's DSEI speech last week.
Raytheon said it was offering maritime and multimission capability to help target exports for a Sentinel platform.
Paul Kahn, the chief executive of Airbus in the UK, told Defense News TV last week that what industry wants from the government is clarity over what their requirements are and whether there will be a competition.
Throughout the week, Boeing itself took a low profile, operating from a stand more suited to a rivet maker than one of the world's great aerospace companies.
A spokesman for the company said they were happy to "await the outcome of the SDSR. We will meet customer needs. If that's a competition, it's a competition," he said.
The government isn’t just about looking at multimission surveillance aircraft in isolation. How the MoD provides its entire air ISTAR capabilities out to 2030 has been the subject of a Joint Forces Command air optimization study, the outcome of which will be reflected in the SDSR.
The Airbus UK boss said one issue it was promoting was for the use of the A330 inflight refueling tankers it provides for the RAF to undertake some surveillance duties as well. That’s a move that could be a threat to Sentinel.
Email: achuter@defensenews.com
Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.
