NEW DELHI — Despite US support, India was unable to gain entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) at the June 23-24 Seoul plenary meeting because of Chinese opposition. However, analysts in India say the government will continue its push to join the elite club.
The NSG plays a major role in governing civil nuclear trade on a global level.
"China's veto [of] India's application in the Seoul NSG plenary was certain. But the Narendra Modi regime seems intent in making it unanimous, diplomatically exposing and isolating China, and paving the way for its eventual entry in the belief that Beijing may not be able to resist in the face of such massive support for India's membership," said Bharat Karnad, a research professor and national security expert at the Centre for Policy Research, an India-based public policy think tank.
A senior official with India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that "New Delhi will push ahead," adding that India is "likely to get the entry at the next NSG meeting by the end of the year."
"The NSG has set up a panel for informal consultations on India's membership. This panel will be headed by Argentine Ambassador Rafael Grossi, permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna and chair of the Nuclear Suppliers Group" the official said.
Analysts and leaders from within the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are critical of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding its determination to join the NSG, saying there are no tangible gains.
"Not sure what the gains to India are from membership in NSG as the country's nuclear program has already achieved mastery in all three fuel cycles — uranium, plutonium and thorium. But it will ease the process and procedures for importing light water reactors," Karnad said. That this last will divert the civilian program from its indigenous path and make India energy dependent as well," says Karnad.
According to another External Affairs Ministry official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity: "The prime minister should not have personally pitched in so aggressively for the entry."
The official said that following the veto in Seoul, there is no room left for negotiation at a higher level with China.
"It can only call for countermeasures and more friction (with China)," the official added, without providing additional details.
Senior leader of the ruling BJP and former External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha is highly critical of India aggressively chasing entry into NSG. Sinha announced June 26 that "India, which has shown so much keenness and desperation in getting NSG membership — it is not required at all. We are comfortable outside NSG. If we become members of NSG, we will have more loss. There will be no gains for us."
Dhruva Jaishankar, a fellow for foreign policy at Brookings India, however, said: "India is not just content abiding by the rules of the international nuclear order, but wants to have a say in setting the rules, which is what NSG membership is about. It would facilitate civilian nuclear commerce, both imports and exports, thereby possibly bringing down the costs of civilian nuclear energy."
India began its bid to enter NSG in 2008 with the Indo-US civil nuclear deal signed between the two countries. That same year, India received a waiver from NSG.
"However India needs more energy and as per the calculations it needs to source 40 percent of power from non-fossil sources. With an entry into the NSG, India can continue to avail the best technology for nuclear energy without seeking waivers," the first External Affairs Ministry official said.
In 2008, India could manage to get an NSG waiver with China agreeing not to contest US support for the country. But now that US President Barack Obama is openly backing India's entry and China openly contesting it, Beijing is has turned on Modi's government, expressing its distaste toward the warming of Washington-New Delhi relations, according to Mahindra Singh, a retired Indian Army major general and defense analyst.
Email: vraghuvanshi@defensenews.com
Vivek Raghuvanshi is the India correspondent for Defense News.
