US Congress Moves Against Pakistani F-16 Deal

ISLAMABAD — The US Congress is reported to have moved to stymied Pakistani efforts to further acquire further new build F-16 fighter jets, according to reports in the local media. This is something which a Analysts say the move could have implications for the bilateral relationship at a sensitive time if the proposed deal stalls altogether.

The deal has apparently been put on "hold" by Congress in an effort to impede its progress, something the Obama administration is reportedly attempting to reverse.

The news was first reported by Pakistan's 'Dawn' media group on Tuesday, citing local diplomatic and Ccongressional sources. It claimed the moves were being spearheaded by increasingly anti-Pakistani/pro-Indian law-makers, naming and quoting Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Calif., as examples.

Considering the forces arrayed against it, author, analyst, and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad Brian Cloughley, former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, said he thinks much uncertainty now surrounds the proposed sale due to Congress' machinations, despite it not being killed completely.

"Congress is well aware of the fact that it is gravely discommoding Pakistan, but has no qualms about that,", he said. "The arrangement for supply of the eight aircraft, as proposed, however, is not dead, but it will require a great deal of work by the Administration to revive it — and the White House might not be keen on that."

Similarly, Claude Rakisits, Nnonresident Ssenior Ffellow the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, is not optimistic on the matter, and said he believes Ccongressional opposition could grow.

"The sale of the F-16s is not looking promising," Rakisits said. "And if the sale of the F-16s has now effectively stalled in a Senate dominated by the generally Pakistan-friendly Republican Party, I would have thought that such a sale to go ahead in a possible Democratic-majority Senate following the 2016 Ccongressional elections would be even more unlikely."

He expressesd some surprise at the turn of events considering the previous Republican attitude towards Pakistan, plus recent efforts events that were helping smooth over past differences.

As a result, Rakisits said he says "such negative congressional reaction to the sale of the F-16s will come as a deep disappointment to officials in Islamabad."

"Not only will that be the case because the Pakistan military has been conducting operations against the Haqqani Network hiding in the tribal areas, as repeatedly asked to do so by the Obama Aadministration for years, but also because it has been assisting in trying to get the Afghan peace process back on track. For example, the inaugural quadrilateral meeting of the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan on this issue was held in Islamabad on Monday."

Following the recent terrorist attack on an Indian air force base however Rakisits Obama may not be so enthusiastic in pushing the deal forward.

Should the deal not transpire, Rakisits said it is of the opinion this would be "a big mistake on the part of Congress."

"Already Washington's influence in Pakistan is fast diminishing, and has increasingly been the case since the US pulled most of its troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014", he said. "As a result, and not surprisingly, this has meant that Pakistan has moved deeper and deeper into China's geo-strategic orbit. And the latest $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project further consolidates Pakistan's long-standing relationship with China."

This Deepening Pakistan-China ties should not be a surprise to Washington, however. 

"Congress knows the geo-strategic implications of refusing to sell the F-16s to Pakistan but the Indian lobby is very effective.  And, quite frankly, Muslims are unfortunately not the flavor-of-the-month in this presidential and Ccongressional election year, and as we know all Ccongressmen and many Republican senators are up for re-election in November,", he said.

Ultimately, should the deal not go through it would certainly have a negative effect on Pakistan's air force modernization efforts would almost certainly be negatively affected without an F-16 deal.

"It is impossible for any air force to undertake long-term planning for the purposes of national defense policy if there is no guarantee that supply of its main platforms, and replacements, as originally planned, will continue," said Cloughley. Witness the appalling state of affairs regarding the Indian Air Force following the politically maneuvered drastic alterations to the Rafale acquisition program), said Cloughley.