The watchword for 2014 has been unpredictability.
Despite being a year of historic significance — with the centenary of the First World War and the 70th anniversary of D-Day — our attention has been drawn repeatedly to present-day conflicts.
The year's end is nevertheless an opportune moment to reflect on the lessons we have learned for the future.
I have drawn three conclusions.
ABOUT THIS SERIES: Defense News asked 15 thought leaders in military, government, academia and industry -- from Europe to Asia to the US to the Middle East -- for their perspectives on their region and how they fit into world events. The result is a comprehensive collection of viewpoints that puts 2014 into context while forecasting the challenges -- and what must be done to meet them -- in 2015.
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Firstly, we need to be proactive. Twelve months ago, in the wake of the UK's decision not to launch airstrikes against Syria, some predicted a more cautious approach to the use of hard power in a post-Afghanistan world.
But merely "defending on the goal line" — forgive the British analogy — in the face of threats to our national security and international stability would be a gross dereliction of duty. And anyway, it's simply not the British way. It wasn't in the Falklands. It wasn't in Kuwait.
So, when conditions demand it, we will continue to take the initiative.
At the same time, we must and will be ready to respond to a largely unprecedented set of circumstances — that is when crises are occurring concurrently, rather than successively.
Second, we must be more agile and flexible — by that I mean being capable of deploying at scale on multiple fronts.
Agility also demands we keep all options on the table. Not just soft power, or smart power, but hard power.
See the other contributors to "2015 Outlook."
In Iraq, we've recognized that only local boots on the ground — by definition inclusive and popularly supported — will make a lasting difference.
But we're not ruling out British boots on the ground in situations where we must defend our interests and allies.
Critically, our 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review provided us with a framework for the flexibility we seek. As a result, we are integrating reserves and regulars more effectively, and investing in the full-spectrum capability that enhances their versatility.
This year alone, we have announced billions of pounds of investment in armored vehicles, in the multirole F-35 combat fighters that will fly from our new naval flagship, the Queen Elizabeth carrier, and in successor submarines.
In parallel, and demonstrating again the importance of practicing what we preach, our personnel have been active across the globe:
Policing Baltic skies and participating in Operation Black Eagle in Poland.
Serving shoulder-to-shoulder with our US allies in Iraq providing humanitarian aid, sourcing vital intelligence and striking numerous Islamic State targets.
Training thousands of local health care workers to stamp out Ebola in Sierra Leone.
We must not, though, be under any illusions. Today's world is hugely complex. And global problems require global solutions. No nation therefore can afford to go it alone.
My third conclusion thus hinges on recognizing the value of partnership.
Our Afghan experience shows how much collaborative working can achieve. Together, 48 nations stopped that country from being used as a base for terrorism on our streets and ensured the first democratic transition in its history.
We're building on that success. At the NATO summit in Wales, we galvanized members to reverse the decline in defense spending and set up a Rapid Reaction Force. This sent a clear, unambiguous message to President Vladimir Putin: Russia's illegal actions in Ukraine and Crimea are unacceptable.
Elsewhere, in tackling the Islamic State group, we've worked hand-in-glove with the US and many nations to cut off extremist funding, to stop their acolytes from crossing borders and to degrade their capability. But bringing down these murderous fanatics must also involve discrediting and disarming their poisonous ideology. So we're strengthening our cooperative web still further.
Recently, we announced that we're setting up a permanent Royal Navy base in the Arabian Gulf, returning us to the east of the Suez Canal for the first time since 1971 and proving we regard our defense presence across the region as a strategic whole.
What does all of this mean for 2015 and beyond? As we look out on an unpredictable future, one thing is certain: We must continue showing the same collective strength, resolve and stamina to defend the world order.
Fortunately, thanks to having put defense funding on a sound footing over the past few years, we're well-placed to rise to these challenges. Our armed forces showed in 2014 that they can — and do — make a significant difference, regardless of the turmoil they confront. And I'm confident that they will continue to do so well into the future, however uncertain that might look.
