Two of the key factors that will shape security issues across the Pacific in 2015 will be China's changing tactics regarding high seas confrontations in the South China Sea, and the steady development of submarine fleets among various countries.
It is clear that China's actions in the South China Sea (SCS) were more assertive during the first eight months of the year. But China seemed to change course in September, moving away from its more heavy-handed tactics.
One possible reason is that President Xí Jìnpíng has an eye on the 2015 Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) to be held in the Philippines, and wants to contribute to a smooth summitby minimizing provocations in the SCS.
China hosted this prestigious summit in 2014 and now can greatly contribute to a successful summit in 2015.
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To make the SCS situation less volatile, China has wisely used Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations among regional nations to defuse the criticism launched against China by international communities.
While China's real objective remains unclear, its new approach stirred the waters in the SCS.
There have been different responses to China's actions, but there are some indications that, thanks to China's new actions in the SCS, regional nations have started narrowing their differences on COC negotiations.
See the other contributors to "2015 Outlook."
This will make 2015 a vital year to judge China's true strategic objectives in the SCS, and whether they will impact positively or negatively on nations in the region.
Another driving strategic factor is the regional response to China's naval shipbuilding plans. Several ambitious submarine programs are underway, including for Indonesia, which has just started a program to introduce two Type-209 boats from South Korea and 12 more boats of an undetermined class by the 2020s.
The Malaysian Navy is operating two French-Spanish-developed Scorpene-class submarines, while the Singaporean Navy has six ex-Swedish submarines. These boats are about 20 to 40 years old but were thoroughly refurbished. And Singapore may introduce a new class of submarines as replacements.
The Vietnamese Navy has started its submarine program of acquiring six Kilo-class boats, with three already delivered.
The submarine fleets of these regional navies will provide a robust conventional deterrent to China's surface force, especially Beijing's plans for aircraft carrier battle groups operating in the SCS in the future.
As regional navies grow their sub forces, two important issues must be resolved. One is water space management, which is necessary to guarantee the safe navigation of submarines operating in the SCS. Unfortunately, there are no functioning frameworks for this purpose today.
Second, as the number of operating submarines increases, the chance of accidents increases. It is the submarine-operating nation's responsibility to establish its own submarine rescue capability. However, it is also important to establish a multinational rescue posture involving all regional operators.
This type of cooperation on water space management and sub rescue protocols will surely become a new bonding agent for multinational naval cooperation.
