NEW DELHI — Experts disagree over the state of India-U.S. defensive and strategic ties under the Trump administration, with one asserting "the warmth seen under [the] Obama administration is missing," and another claiming that "there is no indication of major deviances from the Obama administration."
The latter, Dhruva Jaishankar, a foreign policy fellow at Brookings India, disagreed with the former's stance — that of an Indian Ministry of External Affairs official.
"It is too early to say what approach he [U.S. President Donald Trump] will take to defense ties with India. The first major indication will be after a face-to-face meeting," Jaishankar said.
But one senior Indian Ministry of Defence official did not reflect the same patience, instead critiquing the White House for taking its time to "spell out the future course" of the bilateral relationship and wondering why Washington remains murky on how it will forge defense sector partnerships under Make in India initiatives.
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was more reassuring. "I would not read too much into the Trump administration's silence on U.S.-India relations just yet. The administration is off to an extremely slow start, which has affected all dimensions of foreign policy, not just India."
The senior MoD official noted that negotiations between the two countries on joint development of high-tech weapons envisaged under the Obama administration are "at a standstill."
India and the United States have been negotiating ways to promote co-development and co-production of military technologies under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, or DTTI, a forum set up for this effort.
"India would like to cooperate with U.S. on jet engine technology and aircraft carrier technology," the official said, adding that he hoped these negotiations will "pick up again."
"The Trump administration's approach to DTTI is unclear, but that does not necessarily indicate anything," Tellis added. "The administration has not made up its mind on a number of issues, including how defense cooperation with India will be prioritized. When it does decide, however, I hope it does not simply continue DTTI but accelerates it or some equivalent.
"The jet engine and aircraft carrier working groups are both extremely important for India and it would be a pity if these activities were permitted to falter."
However, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, a senior fellow with the Observer Research Foundation, finds DTTI a challenge. "Finding a balance between Trump's 'America First' and Prime Minister Modi's 'Make in India' is going to be a challenge. Trump can be expected to look out for some serious trade-offs before making progress on the DTTI in general."
In previous dialogues with New Delhi, Washington has already made it known that it would like India to sign pending agreements, which are regarded as the foundation for India-U.S. defensive ties. These agreements include the Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement, otherwise known as CISMOA, and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, or BECA.
CISMOA allows the U.S. to supply India with proprietary encrypted communications equipment and systems, and BECA would set up a framework through which the U.S. can share sensitive data on targeting and navigation with India.
CISMOA and BECA are part of four core agreements the U.S. has being pushing for more than a decade.
The other two are the General Security Of Military Information Agreement, signed in 2002, and the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, signed in late 2015.
"I doubt Trump cares one way or another whether India signs the foundational agreements or not," Tellis said. But the U.S. president has made it clear that "New Delhi will be unable to secure the advanced technology it desires" without these agreements being inked, Tellis added.
Vivek Raghuvanshi is the India correspondent for Defense News.
