In the early morning hours of Dec. 7, 1941, the Japanese Imperial Navy achieved complete strategic surprise at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In a matter of hours, four U.S. battleships were sunk, over a dozen other vessels were damaged and more than 2,400 American service members were killed. Such strategic surprise would not be achieved against the United States for nearly 60 years, when al-Qaida struck New York, Washington and Pennsylvania on Sept. 11, 2001. Later investigations found a litany of American operational, intelligence and bureaucratic failures that contributed to the Japanese success in Hawaii.
Hawaii was a natural target for the Japanese — an incredible naval base with the bulk of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at anchor, supporting infrastructure and airfields. Japanese Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto hoped to cripple the U.S. fleet at Pearl Harbor and prevent any American interference in Japanese expansionism in the Asian theater.
As history shows, while they succeeded in attacking Pearl Harbor, their ultimate goal was unsuccessful.
Today, Hawaii finds itself yet again in the crosshairs of a potential adversary. Except this time, it is not an ambush. We know the adversary, we know the intentions, we know the capabilities, and most importantly we have the tools and capabilities to render the adversary's aims neutral.
North Korea is rapidly developing a ballistic missile capability that will, if the current trajectory continues, place Hawaii well within striking range. It is easy to dismiss Pyongyang's efforts as amateurish and unsophisticated based on recent launch failures, but to do so would be naive and dangerous. This is literal rocket science. From every success and failure, North Korea's scientists learn, improve and refine its capabilities. Remember, the United States' own early testing efforts were halting at best, with missiles barely leaving the launch pads, toppling over and exploding, or just not igniting at all.
Dismissing North Korea's program on its failures risks the same blindness that led to Pearl Harbor. "They can't possibly reach Honolulu" rings true, until they can and they do.
If a threat is assessed as capability plus intent, then North Korea should rank highly on our calculus. In his New Year's address, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stated that his country is reaching the final preparations of testing an intercontinental ballistic missile. In recent months, Pyongyang has aggressively pushed forward on missile testing, threatened to test another nuclear weapon, and increased its bellicose rhetoric toward South Korea, Japan and the United States, not to mention the fact that North Korea has previously demonstrated a strategic recklessness that risks open war.
Clearly, Pyongyang is pursuing an ICBM, and its demonstration of foolhardy behavior combined with increasingly hostile rhetoric proves this is a real threat the United States cannot afford to ignore.
The United States need not be held hostage by this threat nor does it need to stand idly by and wait for a missile test to be successful. We are not defenseless in this situation. We have a robust and proven missile defense system that is real, it works and it can be deployed today.
While much maligned and criticized, the missile defense effort has yielded impressive technologies that should be fielded today to protect our assets in the Pacific, including Guam, Hawaii and Alaska. Most recently the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system scored a successful intercept against a missile launched from the Marshall Islands. While still in development, the GMD's success represents continued progress.
There are, however, systems in the field that are active and proven. The Standard Missile-3 is one of the most tested and effective intercept platforms in the U.S. arsenal. Supported by the Aegis Ashore combat system — a land-based missile defense system — SM-3 and Aegis could immediately provide a layer of defense for the Hawaiian Islands.
Another readily available option is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Recently, THAAD was highlighted in the news because if its deployment to South Korea. The THAAD system is an impressive defense tool that we trust to defend our most trusted allies in the Pacific. Being so, it is more than capable to defend Hawaii, especially with its AN/TPY-2 radar component.
These capabilities offer a three-tier missile defense system that could defend Hawaii from a North Korean missile strike. These capabilities fielded in Hawaii would provide a last line of defense if a crisis with Pyongyang became kinetic, if local missile defense capabilities failed or if North Korea sought strategic surprise.
Some have advocated waiting until a robust system such as the Homeland Discrimination Radar-Hawaii is fully developed before fielding any missile defense capabilities. This is wrongheaded. The threat is real, exists today and is growing. We have the tools available today to provide a strong measure of defense, while working to improve and field better systems in the future. Perfect should not be the enemy of good.
When looking at North Korea, it is too easy to mock the idiosyncrasies of Pyongyang and its leadership, but doing so is irresponsible. It is time that we collectively recognize the threat that North Korea presents: an irrational leader, armed with nuclear weapons, rapidly working toward fielding ICBMs. Taken together, North Korea is real threat to the United States and the world, but one against which we can and must defend ourselves.
Mike Rogers is a former member of the United States Congress, where he represented Michigan's 8th Congressional District. He was also an officer in the U.S. Army and worked as an FBI special agent.
